James Baen's introduction says that he asked Asimov if there was any hope for the future, and if so if he would write a 5,000-word essay on it. Asimov's response (according to Baen) was along the lines of "No, but I'll write it anyway."
So. The essay was written in 1974. After carefully emphasizing that he thinks that the chances are better than 50/50 that we'll wipe ourselves out (or, more specifically, that technological civilization will end) before the beginning of the 21st century, he notes that already there have been some positive developments which nobody would have predicted in the 50s -- the rise of contraception, the sexual revolution, Nixon going to China, etc.). He says that this is because humanity has had to make a choice: either change for the better or perish.
Thinking of it that way, he says that if we do survive it will be because we have made the correct choice in many critical areas. So in this scenario, the beginning of the 21st century has these features:
1) The 7,000,000,000 population already mentioned.
2) "There will be dreadful shortages of food and raw materials generally, but heroic and successful measures towards the proper distribution of what exists and toward efficient methods of re-cycling will minimize the more disasterous effects of the shortages."
3) World government, because "no nation can afford to take unilateral action against the will of the others."
These things all also require the end of sexism, racism, war, the extension of life-span, and the rise of space travel and colonization.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2007-02-11 10:38 pm (UTC)So. The essay was written in 1974. After carefully emphasizing that he thinks that the chances are better than 50/50 that we'll wipe ourselves out (or, more specifically, that technological civilization will end) before the beginning of the 21st century, he notes that already there have been some positive developments which nobody would have predicted in the 50s -- the rise of contraception, the sexual revolution, Nixon going to China, etc.). He says that this is because humanity has had to make a choice: either change for the better or perish.
Thinking of it that way, he says that if we do survive it will be because we have made the correct choice in many critical areas. So in this scenario, the beginning of the 21st century has these features:
1) The 7,000,000,000 population already mentioned.
2) "There will be dreadful shortages of food and raw materials generally, but heroic and successful measures towards the proper distribution of what exists and toward efficient methods of re-cycling will minimize the more disasterous effects of the shortages."
3) World government, because "no nation can afford to take unilateral action against the will of the others."
These things all also require the end of sexism, racism, war, the extension of life-span, and the rise of space travel and colonization.